(Air1 Closer Look) – With just days away from the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election, what news could you hear or read to sway your vote? A world event? A scandal? The phrase ‘October Surprise,’ says journalist Dave Roos, has been in our lexicon for decades -- but it was about sales -- so "when there was a fall clothing sale, they were advertising an 'October Surprise.'”
What began as a retail slogan is now a part of every American election cycle.
While researching a recent article for History.com, Roos found the evidence. “A few quotes from the '50s and 60s, newspapers saying ‘don't miss the October surprise’ they’re coming in,” he jokes, “you know – October -- no surprise.”
The term we now use to describe late news-cycle dirt was not actually coined as a political term until the election between Ronald Reagan and Jimmy Carter in 1980. What happened?
Reagan was running on the promise to release the Americans held hostage by Iran. His campaign manager William Casey told the press he feared President Carter had already secured their release, but suggested he was waiting to tell voters nearer to election day to win re-election. “So it was Reagan's guy who made up the term October surprise,” Roos explains, adding, despite Casey’s crushing of Carter’s re-election bid, the hostages were in fact held until the day of Reagan’s inauguration.
Roos examines seven scandals dropped into the media just ahead of elections, including a threat to James Garfield in 1880 over Chinese immigration and a tangle with America’s black population for Franklin Delano Roosevelt in 1940. He also outlines the investigation of Hillary Clinton and her email server in 2016, regarded as one of the most effective October surprises in recent memory.
He believes the freedom to find and publish information – whether old or new -- whether early or late in campaigns -- is one of the cherished rights of our free press. When ‘surprises’ are inevitably introduced, “it’s up to the voters to decide if that’s disqualifying.”
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Hear my full conversation with Dave Roos, including his thoughts on politics in the pages of the Bible. His podcast Biblical Time Machine examines the ancient writings through the lens of archeology and world history.
“Politics is at the heart of these texts in some way,” he says. “It’s about people responding in most cases to situations they were very unhappy with,” whether ruled by Assyrians, Babylonians, Persians or Romans.
“Some of the coolest stuff to me is understanding how these texts are grappling with these kind of political things -- and finding strength in God -- and ultimately saying that God will be the one to conquer all of Israel’s enemies.”
